David Watson

Data

Sep 15, 2026

Harm vs. Motives

Seventeen positions in the September 2026 argument about pacing AI, placed by how bad they expect AI to get and by what they think the safety movement is up to.

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Sep 2, 2026

Energy vs. Intelligence

Twenty-six fictional universes on a scatterplot of usable energy per capita against deployable cognitive work per capita.

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Apr 23, 2026

My 2026 Hugo Winner Picks

Here’s who my model is picking to win each of the big five 2026 Hugo Awards, and the probability I’d put on each win. Finalists were announced April 21. …

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